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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.